Science and Engineering Challenges in the Oceans and their Relation
to Marine Policy Developments
9 February 2010 London
Presentation
UK
Parliamentary and Scientific Committee Discussion Meeting,
"Marine Engineering & Science"
Colin P Summerhayes, SUT
President and IMarEST Representative
Report
Report
Introduction
The oceans cover 72% of the
planet’s surface. In 2008, ocean activities – excluding coastal
leisure – contributed some 3.9% of UK GDP, mostly (46%) from the oil
and gas sector. Other sectors contributed less: ports (12%),
shipping (8%), equipment (7.8%), defense (6.7%), cables (6.4%) and
business services (5%). Renewables contributed 0.02%. Leadership in
ocean science and engineering in academia and industry comes through
the application of novel, leading-edge technologies. Developments in
technology depend on a combination of current trends and unexpected
imports from other technology fields, and are influenced by policy
and regulation.
Forecasting future
developments requires an appreciation of context. By 2100, 2 billion
more people will have been added to the planet. As populations
become affluent they use more energy, thus by 2020, demand will be
70% above 1997 levels. We are approaching peak oil, as well as peak
gas. The easy oil has been found and exploration has moved into deep
water, where operations are more costly, so oil prices are rising.
The climate is warming, ice is melting and the seas are rising.
Nations are moving towards low carbon economies and investing in
renewable energy sources. Copenhagen achieved no binding agreements,
but industrialised nations are proposing to lessen their use of oil,
gas and coal with time. We will still be using oil and gas by 2100,
not least to meet the demands of transport. Meanwhile developing
countries will be increasing their use of coal, oil and gas. Melting
sea ice is opening up the Arctic, where nations are claiming
exclusive economic zones. Nations will squabble over the extension
of resource-rich continental shelves into deeper Arctic waters.
Technological developments
are driven largely by the need to ensure reliability and reduce
cost, which often leads to de-manning. In all fields we see trends
to growth towards: automation and robotics; lighter weight and
stronger materials; improved connectors and cabling; miniaturisation;
computerisation; increased use of fibre optics in communication;
numerical modelling of operations and environment; visualisation of
processes and operations ahead of deployment; underwater, in situ
power generation (e.g. from currents); and high-voltage subsea
energy supply. In all fields there is more use of satellites for
remote sensing, positioning and communicating with instruments and
between instruments and the shore.
The field is subject to both
opportunities and threats. Growth in ocean policy leads to growth in
regulation, some governed by international agreements. Developing
new technologies and markets demands financial incentives.
Deployment of those technologies may be stymied by NIMBY (not in my
backyard) attitudes. Ageing North Sea infrastructure must be
decommissioned. Small independent operators are entering the North
Sea; they lack financial stability in comparison with the majors.
The largest threat may come from China, which is massively investing
in cheap, green technologies, and competition in this area will be
fierce. Waste needs to be stopped, especially gas flaring at
offshore production platforms worldwide. Difficulties in mitigating
the effects of climate change will require geo-engineering
solutions, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), demands for
which can be met by subsea storage of CO2 in empty petroleum
reservoirs. Ships may be deployed to spray water droplets above the
sea to form clouds over the ocean to reflect sunlight.
Oil and Gas
The average recovery from
North Sea oil reservoirs is 40–50%, and from gas reservoirs 50–60%.
The challenge is to raise recovery to 80% and higher. That requires
better techniques for imaging, visualising and monitoring reservoir
behaviour. The challenge in deep water is to extend production from
water depths of 2500m from surface facilities and 3000m from subsea
facilities, to recovery from water depths of 4000–4500m, combined
with recovery from up to 12,000m below seabed. Drilling costs go up
with water depth, so new techniques like seabed drilling and
riserless and dual-gradient drilling are required, along with novel
methods for casing the drillhole, like continuous reeled casing.
Subsea production requires
automated subsea systems for pumping, processing (e.g. oil-water
separation), monitoring, controls and high-power electrical supply.
Future seabed production systems will be connected to processing and
export systems and managed from the beach. Advanced remotely
operated vehicles (ROV) will be used for intervention (doing things)
and inspection, with ROVs eventually being replaced by autonomous
underwater vehicles (AUV).
Marine Renewable Energy
Sources
The UK government plans
significant growth in offshore renewable energy, mostly from wind
near-shore (<25m deep); the latter have higher energy than winds on
land. Offshore wind farms have hidden costs: they demand a
considerable shipping resource for deployment and maintenance, use
vast amounts of steel and concrete, and require lots of maintenance
due to corrosion by salt water and salt spray. The potential area of
near-shore wind is about the size of Wales. Deep offshore wind (in
water 25–50m deep) would double the possible area of wind farms.
Shallow water wind farms cost twice that of land wind farms and are
only affordable because they are subsidised. Deep-water wind farms
are not yet economically feasible.
Extracting power from tides
and currents is technologically feasible. Although tidal power units
can be environmentally contentious, tide pools generating
hydro-power used to be widespread on small rivers on the UK coast.
Discrete tidal energy units can generate the same power as large
wind power units. The downside is that vast areas (or farms) are
needed, as is the case for wind, to generate significant power.
Happily, the North Sea is a natural tide pool of the right size. It
could be fitted with underwater ‘wind mills’ in current streams,
like the SeaGen device in Strangford Lough in Northern Ireland.
Tidal power can also come from barrages across major estuaries, like
the Rance in France. The Severn and the Wash both have
possibilities. Tidal power could be cheaper than wind power, as the
units would be smaller and exposed to less extreme variability, thus
reducing costs for safety and maintenance. Does UK tidal power have
a fair shake in comparison with wind?
Waves require wind speeds of
>0.5m/sec. The west coast, especially off Scotland, Ireland, and
Cornwall, has the greatest potential. Three UK-built Pelamis wave
energy collectors are operating off Portugal. Each could deliver an
average of 300kW. But they are costly; the steel requirement is
three times that for wind power.
To be successful (and cheap)
renewable power plants need reliability and maintainability in harsh
environments. They demand appropriate marine construction skills and
technologies, as well as the skills and resources for regular
maintenance. One can envisage sharing vessels and maintenance and
inspection skills and technologies with the offshore oil and gas
industry.
Shipping
There is a growing demand
for vessels for deep offshore oil and gas (tankers and platforms)
and for offshore wind, as well as for increased trade by sea. There
are also demands for greener, cleaner, more efficient and safer
operations, which will become stronger with regulated limitations on
gas emissions. This will require improved engine, ship and ship
system design, and use of lower carbon fuels and high temperature
fuel cells. Increasing vessel traffic will require improved
navigation, vessel traffic management, information services, digital
charting and hydrographic surveying. Ports will need to think about
how they will respond to the effects of sea level rise.
Detecting and Monitoring
Climate Change
The oceans store vast
amounts of heat and freshwater, and move them around to control the
climate. Oceans can be monitored via ocean observing systems
comprising national components coordinated by UN agencies. These
systems comprise satellites, aircraft, ships, underwater gliders,
AUVS, in situ techniques (moorings) and coastal systems (tide gauges
and radars) feeding data into forecast models. Advances require
novel sensors and missions. Novel satellite missions include gravity
from altimetry and swath altimetry (from the Surface Water and Ocean
Topography mission). We also need fast AUVs that can go deep.
Continuity is essential in coverage of the ocean’s surface by
satellites and of the ocean’s interior by Argo floats. The Global
Ocean Observing System (GOOS) is around 60% complete, with aim being
100% by 2020. Beneficiary sectors include those on land (e.g.
agriculture, water supply, energy supply), as well as those at sea
(fishing, navy, shipping, coastal engineering, ports, search and
rescue).
Coastal Observations
Coastal seas are grossly
under-sampled. The present UK coastal seas observing network grew
like Topsy; it needs restructuring to meet the complex information
needs of today. Numerical models will show agencies how the
environment works, and detect where and what observations are
needed. There is a pressing need for long-term, full-water-depth,
multidisciplinary observations, supplemented by surface data from
instrumented ferries. Developing new ocean observing technologies
will capitalise on advances in the fields of medicine,
microelectronics, microprocessors and materials. Smaller, lighter,
more advanced sensor packages free of biofouling will underpin
application of the new science of operational oceanography.
Coasts
Coastal populations are
growing faster than elsewhere, along with a growth in marine
leisure. Sea level is rising slowly (3.4mm/yr). The maximum forecast
for 2100 is around 2m, which represents 2cm/yr. This is not a tidal
wave. It can be dealt with by deployment of barriers and dykes (e.g.
Thames Barrier) and by managed coastal retreat in selected areas.
Offshore sand and gravel will continue to be required for coastal
construction (housing, defences, beach replenishment). There is an
increasing demand for environmental forecasts of pollution,
eutrophication (too many nutrients equals algae using up oxygen),
changing ecosystems and fish stocks, endocrine dysfunction and
harmful algal blooms. Such forecasts require developing technologies
in environmental chemistry, ecotoxicology and biomarkers to identify
potential hazards.
Skills
Investment in advanced
education and training is essential to supply the skills base to
support growing offshore activities. A supply of highly skilled
offshore engineers, marine scientists and technicians is imperative
for the UK to remain competitive in the rapidly advancing offshore
technology arena. A long-term strategy is needed to meet the
technological demands of rapid growth in offshore renewables, e.g.
to rapidly ramp up tidal and current energy plants. We can also
retrain established engineers, physical scientists and technicians
(e.g. with funding for mature students, plus conversion courses).
Incentives are needed to get the right growth in skills supply.
Robust cooperation between industry and academia is essential to
ensure world-class skills development in the right areas at the
right rates. The message about the excitement of offshore
applications should be transmitted to schools to interest the coming
generations.
A Marine Technology
Strategy
Meeting these various
challenges calls for a strategic approach: the UK needs centres of
excellence in developing marine technologies and in building skills
through advanced education and training in offshore engineering and
associated marine science and technology. These demands are not
covered by the new UK marine science strategy.
Based on paper delivered
to UK Parliamentary & Scientific Committee Discussion Meeting
"Marine Engineering & Science", Tuesday, 9 February 2010
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